From declaring childbirth a patriotic duty to meddling in family planning and even taxing condoms, the Chinese Communist Party has tried nearly every tool at its disposal to convince its citizens to have more children. The results, however, have been dismal.
For the fourth consecutive year, China reported more deaths than births in 2025, underscoring a demographic crisis that government pressure and social engineering have failed to reverse. Official data released Monday showed just 7.92 million babies were born last year, down sharply from 9.54 million in 2024. At the same time, deaths continued to rise, reaching 11.31 million. The figures were released alongside economic data showing China’s economy grew 5 percent in 2025, highlighting a stark contrast between headline growth and deep structural problems.
The birthrate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. While many countries are grappling with declining fertility, China’s situation is particularly acute. Fewer babies today mean fewer workers tomorrow, leaving a shrinking labor force to support a rapidly expanding population of retirees. A slowing economy has only compounded the challenge.
Experts say the problem may already be beyond repair. Wu Fan, a professor of family policy at Nankai University, warned that China is facing a severe challenge from an extremely low fertility rate. Demographers have long argued that once a country crosses a certain threshold, reversing population decline becomes extraordinarily difficult.
China’s top leadership has responded with increasingly intrusive measures. Xi Jinping has called for a “new type of marriage and childbearing culture,” urging officials to shape young people’s attitudes toward love, marriage, and family. Local governments have followed suit with blunt and sometimes invasive policies, including monitoring women’s menstrual cycles and issuing guidance aimed at reducing abortions deemed medically unnecessary.
These efforts have largely been met with indifference, skepticism, or outright ridicule from young people who see little incentive to start families. On Jan. 1, authorities imposed a 13 percent value-added tax on contraceptive drugs and condoms. While not officially framed as a pro-natalist policy, many citizens immediately viewed it as another clumsy attempt to boost births.
The reaction online ranged from mockery to resignation. Some noted that condoms are still far cheaper than raising a child. Others pointed out that contraception serves more purposes than just preventing pregnancy. A number of more pointed comments were scrubbed by state censors.
Even policies offering cash payments and subsidized housing have failed to move the needle. Sociologists note that financial incentives rarely have a meaningful impact on fertility. For many young Chinese, the obstacles go far beyond government slogans. High housing costs, a property crisis, persistent youth unemployment, and a weak social safety net have made marriage and parenthood increasingly unattractive.
China’s demographic crunch has also arrived sooner than officials once expected. After decades of enforcing the one-child policy, Beijing loosened restrictions to allow two children, then three in 2021. The reversal came too late, leaving the government with limited time to shore up underfunded pension and healthcare systems.
The working-age population is shrinking rapidly, while the number of citizens aged 60 and older is projected to reach 400 million by 2035. Although the government has begun raising the retirement age for the first time since the 1950s, it remains among the lowest in the world, further straining public finances.
Some party officials have even turned to rewarding matchmakers with cash, hoping more marriages will lead to more babies. But those on the front lines of matchmaking say the deeper problem is cultural.
Jia Dan, who runs matchmaking events in Beijing, said he has watched interest in marriage steadily decline. Men often return to his events, but women rarely do. More telling, he said, is that fewer young people seem interested in marriage at all.
“You can really feel that the number of people in Beijing who actually want to get married is shrinking,” he said. “More and more young people just don’t want to do it anymore.”
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