A Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday, one day before former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden face off in a debate on Thursday night, indicates that Trump has gained a surprising four-point lead nationally.
According to Quinnipiac, Trump has 49% support among registered voters, including leaners, while Biden has only 45%.
Both candidates receive nearly the same proportion of votes from their respective parties, but Trump has a 10-point lead among independents (51%-41%).
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are included in respondents’ options, Kennedy receives 11% of the vote, while Trump’s victory margin against Biden increases to six points (43%-37%).
Between June 20 and 24, respondents were interviewed live via landline or cell phone.
The results (with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 points) are especially noteworthy given the Quinnipiac poll’s history.
Trump has won only two of the 17 surveys it has conducted since February 2023, with his most recent “win” occurring in November of last year.
The poll follows the news that respected elections analyst Nate Silver estimates Trump has around a 66% chance of winning the election.
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