After the debate, two Midwestern states are now moving in the direction of former President Trump, according to the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan election analyst Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
In an analysis published on Wednesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik stated that the election handicapper was changing Minnesota from “likely Democratic” to “leans Democratic,” and Michigan’s presidential horse race from “leans Democratic” to “toss up.”
Kondik pointed out that a few weeks prior, the elections forecaster had moved a few states in favor of Trump, but at the time, it had disclaimed that it believed Biden would do better in the fall.
“One thing that has crystallized for us after the debate is that it may no longer make sense to give Biden the benefit of the doubt. Our working assumption has been that whatever the polls say now, this was shaping up to be another very close election,” Kondik noted.
Four months before the election, Biden’s poor debate performance last week is still having an impact, as evidenced by the ratings fluctuations and calls from party members for the president to withdraw from the White House contest.
While Michigan was always a swing state—Biden won it by over three points in 2020—Minnesota has been viewed as a more dependable Democratic state.
Last presidential election cycle, Biden won the North Star State by a margin of seven points.
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