Harry Enten, a senior data reporter for CNN, stated on Friday that former President Donald Trump will secure the November election if he is able to marginally surpass his current poll projections.
According to the RealClearPolling average, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading Trump by a mere 0.2% in the top seven battleground states.
Enten, on “CNN News Central,” observed that Harris’ tenuous lead implies that Trump could secure a victory in November if his final vote total surpasses current poll projections by a mere one point.
“Look, most of the time there’s at least some stretch where one of the candidates is ahead by at least five points, at least three weeks in which one candidate led by at least five points, that happened in every single campaign from 1964 to 2020. How many days have we had this campaign where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally? Look at this zero, zero days, zero days. The fact is this race has been consistently tight in a way that we have never seen before.” Enten said.
“Look at the Democrat versus Donald Trump and those seven closest battleground states. Look at the 2020 final margin and average across these seven states, it was Biden plus 0.9 points. You don‘t think that could get any closer? We can, in fact, get closer. Look right now, Kamala Harris up, but get this, by just 0.6 points on average, only about half a point, six-tenths of a point. My goodness, gracious, that is how tight we are talking right now across these seven battleground states. It is a race, Mr. Berman, that is well within the margin of error when you look across these seven key battleground states that will determine this election.” he added.
In August, Democratic strategist James Carville cautioned his party against becoming overconfident regarding Harris’ chances of victory, as Trump has historically outperformed his polling average.
IN addition Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent for NBC News, stated on Tuesday that the vice president’s razor-thin polling lead over Trump may not be enough to secure the electoral college, as the former president exceeded polling expectations in both 2016 and 2020.
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