In the most recent national NBC News poll, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are at a deadlock.
Trump has been buoyed by Republicans returning home to support him following the contentious debate and subsequent polling deficit that occurred last month, as well as by a favorable voter evaluation of his tenure as president.
These are some of the results of a recent survey that was released three weeks prior to Election Day.
The survey also reveals that Harris’ popularity has decreased in comparison to a month ago, following a significant summertime boost.
Additionally, the survey reveals a significant gender gap between Harris and Trump, and voters regard abortion as a primary motivating issue as they approach the 2024 general election.
The poll is underpinned by uncertainty regarding the election, with 10% of voters indicating that they may change their minds and a small percentage of unclaimed voters remaining undecided.
Additionally, an unprecedentedly high percentage of voters believe that this presidential election will have a significant impact on their lives, and there are significant obstacles for both Harris and Trump.
The third-party vote could also be a factor; Trump receives a slight advantage when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, resulting in a 1-point advantage.
In an election that is finely balanced, even minor fluctuations in turnout among various categories could determine the outcome for either party.
In the most recent poll, which was conducted from October 4-8, Harris receives 48% of the support of registered voters in a head-to-head comparison, while Trump receives an identical 48%.
An additional 4% of respondents indicate that they are undecided or would not vote for either candidate if they were compelled to select between the two major-party candidates.
This is a departure from the September NBC News poll, which indicated that Harris was ahead of Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%. However, that result was within the margin of error.
This shift is also evident in an expanded ballot that includes third-party candidates. In the new poll, 47% of registered voters favor Trump, 46% support Harris, and a combined 7% choose other candidates or remain uncommitted.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans, which would entail a slightly higher turnout among men, white voters, and voters without college degrees, Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
However, these survey results indicate that Harris is leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%, assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats, which would result in a greater number of women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color going to the polls.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, and all of these results are within it.
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