The head of America’s largest bank has now reportedly issued one of the starkest warnings yet about the state of the U.S. economy, cautioning that Wall Street may be far too complacent about the possibility of a sharp downturn.
Jamie Dimon, the longtime chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said he is “far more worried than others” about a significant market correction, suggesting that investors and policymakers are underestimating the dangers building beneath the surface.
“I would give it a higher probability than I think is probably priced in the market and by others,” Dimon told the BBC. “So if the market’s pricing in 10%, I would say it is more like 30%.”
Dimon, one of the most respected voices in global finance, said he sees growing instability that could lead to a correction within the next six months to two years. He cited a combination of geopolitical tension, runaway fiscal spending, and what he called “the remilitarisation of the world” as major causes for concern.
“There are a lot of things out there,” he said. “All these things cause a lot of issues that we don’t know how to answer. So I say the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people’s minds than what I would call normal.”
The remarks underscore a growing unease among global financial leaders that years of cheap money, massive government spending, and speculative investing—particularly in artificial intelligence and technology stocks—have inflated valuations to unsustainable levels.
On Wednesday, Kristalina Georgieva, head of the International Monetary Fund, also warned that the global economy’s recent resilience should not be mistaken for long-term stability. “Before anyone heaves a big sigh of relief, please hear this: global resilience has not yet been fully tested,” she said at the Milken Institute in Washington. “And there are worrying signs the test may come. Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal.”
The Bank of England has similarly cautioned that global markets may be vulnerable to a “sudden correction,” noting that enthusiasm over artificial intelligence has created the conditions for a speculative bubble.
Dimon agreed that the frenzy surrounding AI has led to excessive risk-taking. “Some of the money being invested in AI will probably be lost,” he said. “The way I look at it is AI is real; AI in total will pay off—just like cars in total paid off, and TVs in total paid off—but most people involved in them didn’t do well.”
For Dimon, who steered JPMorgan through the 2008 financial crisis, the warning is not merely academic. His remarks reflect a belief that Washington’s fiscal excesses, combined with mounting global insecurity, could spark a reckoning.
While many on Wall Street remain optimistic that the Federal Reserve can guide the economy to a “soft landing,” Dimon’s message is clear: the risks ahead are greater than investors care to admit. And in his view, prudence—not exuberance—should be the watchword for the months to come.
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