Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is holding a slim edge over Democrat Troy Jackson as she fights for a sixth term in the Senate, according to a new poll released this week.
The New York Times/Siena survey shows Collins with 49 percent support compared to 46 percent for Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate. The veteran lawmaker’s 3-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error of roughly 5 points, and another 5 percent of the 619 respondents said they remain undecided.
The survey reveals a sharply divided electorate. Jackson led Collins by 9 points among women, 18 points among voters aged 30 to 44 and a commanding 34 points among Hispanic respondents.
Collins, meanwhile, posted strong numbers with key voting blocs. She led Jackson by 16 points among men, 19 points among voters aged 45 to 64, 6 points among white respondents and 18 points among Black respondents.
Despite the incumbent’s polling lead, Decision Desk HQ gave Jackson a 54 percent chance of winning the race as of Wednesday. The contest is considered critical to Democrats’ hopes of seizing control of the Senate. The party must flip a net of four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber.
Jackson was a late addition to the race. He replaced Graham Platner on the ballot in July after the oyster farmer dropped out of the contest amid allegations of sexual assault, which Platner denied.
The Democratic nominee is a progressive who lost the party’s gubernatorial primary in June to former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree. On the campaign trail, Jackson has pushed a left-wing agenda that includes “Medicare for All,” abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and raising taxes on billionaires and corporations.
Jackson has also sought to tie Collins to President Trump, who lost Maine in each of his three presidential campaigns.
But Collins has shown a willingness to go her own way. The Republican senator broke with the president multiple times over the summer, criticizing his tariff war with Canada and voting against the confirmation of Attorney General Todd Blanche.
Collins has also been working on issues close to home. Last week, she joined Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, in urging the Senate Commerce Committee to take up House-passed legislation that would extend a pause on whaling regulations.
The bill, titled the Northeast Lobstermen Protection Act, has been championed by leaders in Maine’s lobster industry. In the House, the measure was sponsored by outgoing Rep. Jared Golden, a Maine Democrat.
The race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the cycle, with control of the chamber potentially hanging in the balance. With the candidates separated by just a few points and a small share of voters still undecided, both campaigns face a fierce fight in the weeks ahead.
The Times/Siena poll was conducted Sept. 15-22 in collaboration with the Portland Press Herald and was sponsored in part by the Maine Trust for Local News.
