A new poll by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult indicates that a majority of swing-state voters would not support Donald Trump if he were to be convicted of a crime.
This statistic serves as a concern for the Republican frontrunner, who maintains a lead over President Joe Biden in crucial states.
53% of voters in the seven closely monitored battleground states said they would not support Trump in the general election if he were to be convicted of a crime; that percentage increases to 55% if he receives a prison sentence.
Thus far, Trump’s campaign fundraising efforts and standing in the Republican primary field have been bolstered by his 91 criminal charges in four separate indictments and related court appearances.
However, according to data published on Wednesday, the extent to which his legal battles can benefit him politically is limited.
The skepticism of voters to support a convicted Trump is one of the few blemishes in a poll that otherwise indicates the former president expanding his lead over Biden in a head-to-head contest.
The poll indicates that Trump holds a six-percentage-point advantage over Biden on average in the seven pivotal battleground states that are likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
The poll indicates that while Republicans have shown support for Trump in the wake of his four indictments, a conviction and subsequent prison sentence might alter the stance of some voters.
Almost one-fourth, or 23%, of Republicans in swing states say they cannot support him if he is found guilty.
From January 16 to 22, following the Iowa caucuses and prior to the New Hampshire primary, the survey was carried out. It also preceded a $83.3 million civil damages award for defamation against author E. Jean Carroll, who had previously prevailed in a separate sexual assault lawsuit against him in 1996.
Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada were surveyed for the study.
Monthly assessments are being conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult in anticipation of the November presidential election.
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