New Poll Shows Dems in Major Trouble With Minorities Ahead of 2024

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A new poll from Gallup is now showing just how badly Democrats are struggling amongst minority voters, a group which in years past has frequently been the key to electoral victory for them.

While gaining ground in others, the Democrats have lost ground among some of their traditionally strongest support groups.

In the party preferences of African Americans, the Democratic Party’s wide margin over the Republican Party has decreased by nearly 20 percentage points over the last three years.

In addition, the Democratic Party’s lead among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 has diminished significantly, leaving the party with a marginal advantage in both demographics.

Democrats are currently in the red with both categories, whereas they were on par with Republicans among men in 2009 and among non-college-educated adults as recently as 2019.

The Democratic Party has gained long-term support among college-educated Americans, including those with postgraduate degrees and those with only a bachelor’s degree, albeit only partially mitigating these trends.

The proportion of U.S. adults who identify as Democrats (27%) and favor Democratic (43%), according to Gallup, are both at all-time lows.

Other significant demographics, such as adults aged 65 and older (who are evenly divided), women (who maintain a strong Democratic preference), and White adults (who support the GOP), do not appear to be declining significantly for the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party held a 47-percentage-point advantage over the Republican Party among demographic subgroups in terms of party preferences in 2023, with the exception of non-Hispanic Black adults. 66% of adult African Americans identify as Democrats or incline in that direction, while 19% identify as Republicans or lean in that direction.

Despite maintaining a significant lead over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the United States, the Democrats’ current 47-point margin is the narrowest in Gallup’s history of polling, which dates back to 1999.

The majority of the decline has occurred in recent times, as evidenced by this group’s net-Democratic ID declining 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020.

77% of Black adults supported the Democrats at the time, compared to 11% who supported the Republicans; thus, the 2023 results indicate an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation and an eleven-point decline in Democratic affiliation since 2020.

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