Fox News has shifted two closely watched Senate contests into its “toss-up” category, moving the races in Michigan and Texas with less than three months remaining before Election Day.
The outlet changed its rating for Michigan from lean Democratic to toss-up, while the Texas contest moved from lean Republican to toss-up.
In Michigan, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is battling former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich.
A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 showed Rogers with support from 51% of respondents compared with 47% for El-Sayed. The Democratic nominee, who is running as a progressive, has campaigned on “Medicare for All” and cracking down on corporate PACs.
El-Sayed is also attempting to bring Democrats together following a bruising primary contest against Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.
That race concluded earlier this month with El-Sayed defeating Stevens by just 1 percentage point.
Black voters could be a significant part of El-Sayed’s effort to unify the Democratic coalition after a majority supported Stevens during the primary.
The Aug. 6-10 Fox News survey found 75% of Black respondents supported El-Sayed. That figure was below the 87% who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Rogers, meanwhile, held a financial advantage at the end of June. Federal Election Commission figures showed the Republican had more than $4.4 million in cash on hand, nearly $2 million more than El-Sayed.
Texas is also shaping up as a competitive fight, with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico attempting to become the first Democrat to win a Senate election in the state since former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Standing in his way is Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, by a wide margin in the Republican primary runoff this spring.
While Paxton captured the GOP nomination, Talarico entered the general election fight holding a sizable fundraising advantage.
FEC figures from the end of June showed Talarico with more than $21.5 million in cash on hand. Paxton, by comparison, had less than $1.8 million available.
The shifting ratings in Michigan and Texas come as control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the upper chamber, leaving Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to regain control.
A 50-50 Senate would still leave Republicans with an advantage on party-line votes because Vice President Vance would hold the power to cast the deciding vote.
With Michigan and Texas now both rated as toss-ups by Fox News, the two contests add to the fight over which party will control the Senate following the November elections.
